Name: Melisa Ljusa
Affiliation: Faculty of Agriculture and Food Sciences, University of Sarajevo
Journal Title: Importance of GHG emission projections
Date: 29 July 2022


Today's training started with short introduction in which Professor Seung Jick Yoo, from the Sookmyung Women’s University, pointed out the importance of various variables used in GHG emission projections.



Picture 1. Professor Seung Jick Yoo, from the Sookmyung Women’s University


We have then started working on the specific tasks performed in the R program.
Our task was to look at the impact of the two most significant variables: GDP and population per GHG projections by the year 2050, using a Short Term vs. Mid- and Long-Term Projection method.
The professor has carefully and thoroughly explained the work in the R program. He paid special attention to the interpretation of the results obtained and the effect of certain variables on the results. The professor showed us the impact of mitigation measures on the reduction of emissions using an example, which can be seen on the example of the analysis results as well.
The professor has also introduced the trainees to dummy and multiple dummy variables that can be used in cases where several questions/problems arise.



Picture 2. Practical exercise results


In the second part of the lecture, we have learned about the structure of bottom-up approach to make projections.
Bottom-up approach takes into account GHG from energy use and GHG from non-energy use.
In Korea, energy use projections are made from two perspectives: by use and by sources.
Having referred to the purposes of projection, the professor has particularly emphasized the necessity of having data for a long time series as well as details of sector data classification. The process of preparing projections based on the following criteria is explained: GDP, population data and oil prices. Energy consumption estimation process was presented by using concrete examples of agriculture and fishery sector.
The professor emphasized the decrease in number of people engaged in agriculture, and also stressed the fact that projections are made in relation to the number of people working in this sector. The results on total energy consumption are compared with value added of sector, in order to further analyse the situation. The examples from the steel and iron industry, cement industry, household & buildings, transport energy and waste consumption in Korea were presented to get a better understanding of the bottom-up approach.

Today's lectures and specific examples of exercises have changed the perspective of scenario preparation and developed ideas for improving them in future reporting.
It is clearly visible on the examples of Korea, that the influence of individual parameters and trends shown through graphs can be seen better and in more details, which can certainly improve the quality of future predictions of emissions, and justify the planned emissions with the help of the data used.

Today's lessons were very important for all trainees. Projections are of special importance due to the timely creation of policies and activities by decision makers, to whom the profession gives signals for action through projections.
It is also important to secure financing, especially in developing countries where these activities are mainly financed by the international organizations, very little from the budget, and these projections precisely should give a signal that budget resources are adequately planned.




Coordinator's comments: 
Your journal on this day is indeed a very detailed one, Melisa!
It is like a reservoir of the most significant messages and lessons from Professor Yoo's lectures. 
Besides, you also clearly added what you have learned from the Korea's case and explained why projections are important to anyone who is working in this field. I am truly astonished. 
Professor Yoo will be very glad if he reads your journal because it is a proof of how much you were focused on the class and exercises.  
Thank you for sharing us a great journal of yours.